September 28, 2021

Aone Punjabi

Nidar, Nipakh, Nawi Soch

Lockdown last option: Experts of the country agree with PM Modi’s opinion

5 min read

More than 2 lakh 50 thousand cases coming every day since last week have caused lockdown in Maharashtra, Delhi, and other states. On the other hand, after the election rallies, Prime Minister Narendra Modi also understood the seriousness of the matter and gave a message to the nation. He said that lockdown should be used as a last resort.

To understand the government’s leniency on steps like lockdown across the country, In which public health policy expert Dr. Chandrakant Lahariya, retired banker and market expert Ajay Bagga, senior economist Brinda Jagirdar, and sociologist Chitra Awasthi.  All experts agree not to apply lockdown. They said there is a strict need for restrictions such as not leaving the house unnecessarily instead of lockdown. The government failed to improve health services, no major steps were taken during the year. Social security wages should be given on the lines of Europe, to create a sense of responsibility among the common people.

Retired banker and market expert Ajay Bagga said that the service sector has a large share in the country’s GDP and it has not been able to improve for the last year. Large numbers of informal workers are returning to villages from partial lockdowns in major states. This will only affect the economic recovery. Global rating agency Credit Suisse has also said that lockdown in states is having a bad effect on GDP.

The chances of a lockdown like last time are extremely low. Ajay Bagga said that if the partial lockdown lasts for a month and a half, then the GDP could fall by 1-1.5% on a monthly basis. However, the possibility of a severe lockdown like last year due to industrial activity is extremely low.

Senior economist Brinda Jagirdar says that this time too the economy will get full support from the Agriculture sector. There will also be a manufacturing sector. But the exodus of workers had a bad effect on the service sector. However, it is not going to have much impact on GDP like last year.

Public Health Policy Expert Dr. Chandrakant Lahariya said that implementing lockdown gives time to prepare health services, which we saw earlier in the year. The lockdown makes no sense at the present time, as the infection that has just started was spreading 10-15 days ago.

He said that if people are made aware from now on and strict measures are taken to get out without any reason, then in the next 10 days, the cases of Corona may see a decline. In addition, health needs must be met.

RC Bhargava, chairman of Maruti Suzuki, the country’s largest carmaker, also believes that steps like lockdown in the fight against Corona are not right.  he said that curfew and lockdown will cause problems to many people. This is not the right solution.

Ajay Bagga said there was a huge relief package behind the recovery in Europe and the US economy. In Europe, these relief packages were given directly to companies, which did not create jobs. Meanwhile, in the US, its benefits reached companies and people. This increased people’s spending, with the result that the economic situation improved rapidly.

He said that the relief package was also announced in India. The RBI cut interest rates and restructured small and medium businesses. Besides, a food subsidy was also given. Despite this, it had a bad effect on the service sector.

Many countries like the USA and UK have advised their citizens to avoid going to India. Hospitality, tourism, and airlines were not able to recover from the first wave of Corona. Now, these sectors will be badly affected by the second wave. Ajay Bagga said that the loss to the airlines will reach Rs 26,000 crore in 2020-21.  Whereas, Dr. Chandrakant Lahariya says that there is no comparison of India with Europe and America. Because lockdown or any such decision is taken there, people are given social security wages. For example, if there is a lockdown, the people will be given  2,000 by the government. This reduces the financial burden on the common man and it gives the support of the people to the government, but in India, it is a little less possible.

However, Brinda Jagirdar believes that population is an important factor in comparison between India and other countries. Secondly, more is spent abroad on the health budget, which is much less in India. Besides, people, there are more responsible than Indians. The greater participation of the service sector in India’s economy also makes it difficult.

Dr. Chandrakant says there are 9 million active cases in a population of 330 million in the US, but there is no chaos. Meanwhile, in India, with a population of over 130 crores, 9-10 lakh cases are active and the situation is uncontrollable. That means we need to work on our health services.

Not having to suffer like last year, so the workers are leaving the city from now on Not having to suffer like last year, so the workers are leaving the city from now  Like last year, migrant workers are returning home faster due to lockdown and health concerns. During this time, people were less afraid of Corona and more in a hurry to reach home. Social distance so far people are reluctant to wear masks.

Sociologist Chitra Awasthi on fleeing workers says people are not necessarily going home because of the lockdown. In fact, most workers go home this season.

Citing the example of Delhi, he said that last year there was a dire need for workers working in companies, but no one was available. About three months later, just before the rains, the workers once again started returning to the cities.

Chitra Awasthi says that even before Corona, a large number of workers used to go to the village during April-May. Then return again after 1 or 2 months. It is not right to blame only Corona and Lockdown for the escape.

According to the Delhi-based think tank Center for Monitoring Indian Economy (CMIE), the urban unemployment rate rose to 10.72% last week from 9.81% last week. The overall unemployment rate fell to 8.4% from 8.58% last week.

CMIE’s MD Mahesh Vyas said that out of the 10 million people who got salary due to the epidemic, 60 lakh people lost their jobs. The unemployment rate had reached 27.11% on May 3 last year. He said that the main reason for the rise in urban unemployment is the lockdown in states like Maharashtra and Delhi.

In fact, most experts are assuming that the Prime Minister’s concern is with health as well as the economy, as last year’s severe lockdown across the country led to a historic decline in the economy and the GDP growth rate slipped to 23.9% in the first quarter.

The decline continued for two consecutive quarters, with a slight increase of 0.4% during October-December. According to the RBI, January-March, i.e. the fourth quarter, can also see positive growth of 5% in GDP. But with increasing cases of corona and stricter restrictions, rating agencies have lowered their estimates on GDP growth for the financial year 2021-22. Because curfew and lockdown are having a bad effect on economic activities. The adverse effects of the ever-increasing cases of Corona can also be seen in the decline in vehicle registration, power consumption, GST e-way bill generation in April.

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